Impact and leverage model
Where each euro goes, and how far it travels
The right unit here is reach per euro, not return per euro. A bounded technology line of €1.5M sits beneath a 254.7M cumulative 2035 goal, carried through networks the coalition already controls.
Stated waypoints, 1.0x
2035 reach (Base)
254.7M
Cumulative goal
Facilitator leverage
10x
Reach per facilitator, 2026 to 2035
Cost per peacemaker
€5
Marginal, Phase 2+
Technology line
€1.5M
30% of Phase 2
Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
The three lanes
Inspire is cheap per head, Succeed is deep per head
The blended number hides the truth that mass-reach Inspire costs little per life while mentored Succeed costs much more. The euro split below is a proportional illustration, not a source allocation: it understates Succeed and overstates Inspire until the real per-lane allocation is supplied.
| Lane | Reach goal | Share | Illustrative euros | Illustrative cost per life |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inspire | 225M | 90% | €4.5M | €0.0200 |
| Prepare | 20M | 8% | €400K | €0.0200 |
| Succeed | 5M | 2% | €100K | €0.0200 |
| Total | 250M | 100% | €5M |
Reach figures are a 2035 goal. The euro-per-lane split is illustrative, not a source allocation. Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
Sum of parts
Inside the €1.5M technology line
- Nonflict App
- Nonflict AI
- Online Learning Platform
- Alignment Meter
- Protocol-Layer Integration Spine
| Component | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Nonflict App | €600K | 40% |
| Nonflict AI | €350K | 23% |
| Online Learning Platform | €300K | 20% |
| Alignment Meter | €150K | 10% |
| Protocol-Layer Integration Spine | €100K | 7% |
| Total | €1.5M | 100% |
Milestone payment schedule
The line is released against five acceptance milestones, not paid up front. It is an engagement fee; the technology is delivered free of charge to coalition partners.
| Milestone | When | Payment | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 2 commencement | Q3 2026 | €300K | €300K · 20% |
| App MVP and AI upgrade live | Month 6 | €375K | €675K · 45% |
| Full localization complete | Month 12 | €375K | €1.1M · 70% |
| 10K facilitator capacity supported | Month 18 | €300K | €1.4M · 90% |
| Phase 2 acceptance, 2.5M annual reach | Month 24 | €150K | €1.5M · 100% |
Unit economics
Cost per peacemaker, leverage, and cost per life
€5
Marginal cost per peacemaker (Phase 2+)
Leverage shape
Install once, install deep, deploy everywhere
Cost per life touched
€0.0196
Phase 2 envelope ÷ 2035 goal
€0.0059
Technology line ÷ 2035 goal
These are an illustrative ceiling on leverage, not a unit cost. The denominator is a 2035 goal and the numerator does not include the continuation funding that carries most 2028 to 2035 reach.
Social value per life touched, and the social-asset range it implies
A conservative proxy band, pending a social-return study. The €10 base drives the illustrative valuation; a 5% social discount rate applies one period to the impact stream. The value column reacts to the scenario toggle: it scales with the base-case 2035 reach of 254.7M.
| Band | Per life | Lives at goal | Social-asset value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | €5 | 254.7M | €1212.9M | A conservative proxy floor. |
| Base | €10 | 254.7M | €2425.7M | The illustrative base value per life touched. |
| High | €25 | 254.7M | €6064.3M | A higher proxy reflecting deeper Prepare and Succeed engagement. |
Low band (€5)
€1212.9M
Base band (€10)
€2425.7M
High band (€25)
€6064.3M
An analytical social-asset framework, not an appraisal. This is a social-impact value, not an equity value: there is no equity in this structure and no donor financial return. The range follows mechanically from the per-life band and the scenario-scaled 2035 reach, both of which are illustrative placeholders pending a social-return study. Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
Sum of parts
The three lanes, summed to the base-case goal
The goal is not one number; it is three pathways at different depths summing to one total. Each lane carries its share of the scenario-scaled reach and its own social-asset value at the €10 base. The split visual shows the proportions; the table sums them.
Pathway split of the goal
| Lane | Share | Reach (Base) | Social value at €10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inspire | 90% | 229.2M | €2183.1M |
| Prepare | 8% | 20.4M | €194.1M |
| Succeed | 2% | 5.1M | €48.5M |
| Total | 100% | 254.7M | €2425.7M |
Reach figures are a scenario-scaled 2035 goal. Social value at €10 is illustrative and discounted one period at 5%. Not an appraisal, not an equity value.
Social-asset value (Base, €10)
€2425.7M
Illustrative, not an appraisal
Build cost against value
€5M
The bounded Phase 2 envelope
Headline goal
250M
Young peacemakers, 2035
Cost per peacemaker
€5
Marginal, Phase 2+
The social-asset value is a social-impact figure, not an equity value and not a return. Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
The path
From 200 facilitators to the 2035 goal
Reach per facilitator rises roughly tenfold as the rails mature. The base case lands at 254.7M cumulative. Earning access to networks that together reach more than 200 million young people a year.
254.7M is a 2035 goal, not current reach. Coalition reach is borrowed through partner networks.
2026
40K
cumulative reach
200 facilitators
2028
9.7M
cumulative reach
10,000 facilitators
2035
254.7M
cumulative reach
130,000 facilitators
254.7M is a 2035 goal, not current reach. Between-anchor years are interpolated and illustrative. Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
The asymmetry in the family’s favour
The technology build is a largely fixed cost. If reach overshoots, cost per life touched falls. If reach undershoots, the rails still exist and serve later cohorts. The downside is a tipping point that arrives later, not a gift that is lost.
A commitment is a gift, not an investment. No equity, no financial return. Figures reflect the current plan and are subject to confirmation.
Fixed cost
€1.5M
Largely set regardless of how far reach travels
Conservative-to-ambitious swing
152.8M to 305.6M
Same build, a wide reach band